Pass or fail? Severe weather tests our meteorological skills (continued)

Continued from Pass or fail? Severe weather tests our meteorological skills

We should have had a good drive day. 40 minutes of easy roads, and a border crossing into our 45th state RVed and my 47th state overall. Instead, we drove straight into a line of thunderstorms and found ourselves towing under an ominous shelf cloud that taunted us along I-90 east.

The look of that sky worried us enough, but we had also just gotten our low fuel alert. We had had 2 failed attempts to get gas at stations that turned out to be closed, which left us no choice but to race against our tank, and against the storm. To say we were stressed is an understatement. My mind kept flashing to all the ways this could go horribly wrong. We weren't out west anymore, were totally rusty with our Midwest weather awareness, and it showed.

All we had to do was go 6 miles, get off the exit in Luverne, MN, and get into a gas station. The lateral winds weren't too strong yet, but we knew it was only a matter of minutes. We kept a slow but steady pace, made it off the exit, and pulled into the first gas station we saw that had space for our rig.

We beat the storm by mere seconds. Anthony had just started pumping when I looked up and saw the flags on the gas station roof start to whip in the wind. Thunder began booming and lightning flashed in the clouds.

Anthony took shelter in the truck while the gas finished pumping. We weighed our options. We couldn't drive to the state park, as it was located north of us, where the storm was. We didn't want to drive once the high winds and rain started, but the gas station didn't seem like the safest option. Luverne is a large town compared to the others in the area. There were a few larger stores and hotels where we could take shelter if needed.

I had noticed a Bomgaars off to the south when we got off the highway. We had been in regions with the store before, but I had never consciously noticed one. It stood out to me on this day because it looked like a farm supply store, similar to a Tractor Supply, and those stores typically allow dogs inside. I had made a mental note in case we'd need to find a shelter. I told Anthony about it and we looked it up. It was exactly what I expected, and most locations do allow leashed dogs. It was 3 minutes down the road, in the opposite direction of the storm. I suggested we go there, sit in the parking lot, and if the winds picked up, or God forbid any cell rotation started, we'd be able to run inside. Only concern with this was, as we continued monitoring the flags at the gas station, I noticed the wind shift direction. First, the flags blew due south, and suddenly, they began blowing more eastward. This is wind shear, and it indicates changes in the storm pattern. Basically, directional shear can cause the formation of supercells, which can lead to tornadoes, high winds, or large hail. We weren't supposed to get any extreme weather, but in the Plains, we need to be prepared for anything, especially with the temperature and moisture content in the atmosphere that day.

We decided that, since Bomgaars was only a short drive, it would be worth the risk to know we'd have shelter if needed. Driving south, the winds wouldn't be totally lateral against us either. We made it to the parking lot easily, but barely had time to park before torrential downpours hit. No sense in running into the store unless we absolutely had to. We sat in the truck and waited out the storm.

The rains only lasted about 10 minutes, and the thunder several minutes after that. The winds never got strong enough for us to feel unsafe in our vehicle. As the storm died down, I checked the radar to see when we'd be in the clear to head to the state park. I also wanted to make sense of what had happened. The storm that was supposed to be south of us formed north of us. Then it almost seemed like it had changed directions and started moving more south. My radar showed that, while it mostly continued moving west to east, it grew, and new cells formed right over us. The change happened in the span of less than 10 minutes. You can see in the 2 screenshots below that, at 4:37PM, there is no red or yellow over us on the radar. At 4:47PM, there was. This means that, as the storm moved eastward, new thunderstorm cells developed as they passed over us.

We waited until close to 5:30PM and then drove the remaining 7 miles to the state park.

We had a dirt and grass site awaiting us, which caked our tires in mud, but we were just happy to be on solid enough ground that we wouldn't sink. The "state bird" of Minnesota came out to greet us as we unhitched (mosquitoes), but dealing with them was small potatoes compared to what we had just been through.

We would have liked for this to be the worst of the weather, so we could settle in and enjoy our first campground in Minnesota, but the next day's forecast was looking dire. Max Velocity's face says it all!

We knew that we'd be in a storm zone, which is why we made sure the bathhouses at the campground looked like sturdy shelters, but when we woke up the next morning, we started questioning everything.

Things can change at the drop of a hat in the weather sphere. The night before, the radar was showing most storms firing north of us, despite our area being in the risk zone. Then, we woke up Monday morning and everything had changed. In the radar image above, you see that the storms (in red) fire on the southwestern side of the state and up through Minneapolis. We would be in the thick of it. The prediction center expected us to get some strong winds, but the biggest concern was up to apple-sized hail! We were also in a 5-9% tornado risk, with the expectation that this could be upgraded to 10% or more. If you don't know how risk forecasts work, a 5% chance of a tornado means 5% chance that a tornado will drop within 25 miles of a given point. This means the likelihood is fairly high. We still assumed we'd get no tornadoes, but hail that large could take out our solar panels or even dent our roof. We didn't want to need to replace those again!

The biggest question mark of the morning was a line of thunderstorms moving through the northern part of Minnesota. If they dissipated early enough in the day, this could cause the atmosphere to destabilize by the afternoon, forming a convective system of storms. If the line of morning storms was slower to dissipate, there would still be enough moisture in the air that storms would have less of a chance of firing in the afternoon. That meant we could either wait until the early afternoon to see what happens, or we could form a plan of action now.

Our drive day also hung over my head, shredding every last ounce of confidence I had about my ability to predict these storms and keep us out of harm's way. We thought long and hard about our choices. We could stay put and cross our fingers that the storm would shift, or we could flee. Fleeing anywhere within a 60mi radius wouldn't matter. Our best bet would be to head west into South Dakota, where the risk was slightly lower, but we'd need to go at least an hour and a half away. Then, if we were to flee, would we take the RV with us? That hail prediction was concerning, but we didn't have much time to tow. Anthony had a jam-packed work day with nonstop calls. He also worried that we might hit wind, and it's safer to not be towing. He felt the best option was to get a hotel or Airbnb, put us out of the storms and into a heftier structure, and leave the rig.

I wanted to take the rig and bring it to South Dakota. I even offered to do the driving so Anthony could work on the way. I try to tow at least once a year anyway, and I was due! But Anthony convinced me to leave Buggy behind. Chances are any damage wouldn't be too catastrophic, and we would be able to scoot to a safer area without taking the time to pack up, hitch, and tow. So I found us an Airbnb in Mitchell, SD, 90 minutes west.

Mitchell is a relatively large town, so we'd be in civilization, but Airbnbs are few and far between. In case the storms shifted, we felt safer in a house. We also figured we'd take advantage of our situation and get laundry done. I wasn't thrilled with the photos on the Airbnb listing. The house was old. It was rated a 4.76/5 which is a little lower than I usually go for Airbnbs, but still within a reasonable range. All the reviews I read were positive. And let's face it, beggars can't be choosers in situations like this, anyway. It was one night, and we'd be safe. That's all that mattered.

We may have jumped the gun, because before we left early that afternoon, the forecast shifted again. The storms looked weaker over Luverne, and while wind and hail were still threats, I would have felt comfortable staying in the rig. But, we had already paid for the Airbnb, and so we set off on I-90 west. I still ended up driving so Anthony could do work, and while the drive was smooth, we saw thunderstorms in the distance.

The Airbnb host let us know that they were renovating the front porch of the house. It seemed like this was part of a larger renovation of the entire house, because some stuff had been upgraded inside, but not a lot. The house was built sometime around the late 1800s-early 1900s, and it was still decorated like it. I immediately detected an odor, like stale smoke, or perhaps a century of lived-inness. I am extremely sensitive to smells, so this was going to be a tough time for me. Typically when we choose Airbnbs, we look for more modern ones, but Mitchell had no such thing. And unfortunately, unless it's mentioned in a review, we can't predict the smell of a place. I just reminded myself that it would only be for one night, and we settled in as best we could.

We were storm-free during our time at the Airbnb, which was the main point of staying there, but I was really struggling to feel comfortable. The house was drafty – not surprising given its age – and I kept feeling like everywhere I sat had decades of butts sitting there before me. The smell was really getting to me, and overall the house didn't seem "Airbnb ready." The shower was finicky, the windows were painted shut, and the decor was old and very, very religious. Things were definitely a work-in-progress. We get that the host might want to get some money to invest in more renovations, and that's why she discloses the construction evidence, but there needs to be a baseline before you rent a place out!

When evening came, I tuned into the weather coverage for Minnesota. A line of storms fired, resulting in a few tornadoes. However, they were all in the Minneapolis region or further north. Over Luverne, the skies were completely quiet. Our hourly forecast turned to "cloudy." We checked our security cameras, which we had pointed outside. Nothing but a slight breeze. It was hard to feel like we hadn't completely failed in our response to the weather forecast. We shelled out almost $200 for this smelly Airbnb, and clearly it was total overkill! But, as with the other storms, they changed direction and intensity several times, and we could only make decisions with the little information we had.

I told Anthony I'd rather eat the cost of the Airbnb and drive back to the RV. I was getting a headache and nausea and couldn't imagine spending the night in that house. Anthony finished his final work call at 7:45PM, and we immediately packed up and drove the 90 minutes back to Buggy. We wondered if this was some sort of odd fulfillment of our desire to take I-90 on our way back to New England. We certainly hit more of it than we expected!

The next day, we messaged our Airbnb host to let her know we didn't end up staying overnight, so the beds hadn't been used. We explained that I was feeling sick because of some sort of smell, and our host said no one has ever smoked there before and she went by that morning and smelled nothing. Unfortunately, none of the reviews back me up either, as all 21 of them rave about how "cozy" and "clean" and "great" it is. Maybe those people have very low standards of what an Airbnb should be. I do not. We didn't expect to get a refund or anything, though a partial would have been nice considering we didn't actually spend the night (and we've had hosts give us partial refunds for a lot fewer issues). So it just becomes part of our tale of how we totally overreacted to this storm prediction. I need to remind myself of 2 important things. First, we successfully stayed ahead of storms through 3 states. Second, even though our last 2 days of decisions weren't ideal, we remained safe, and we know that's the most important outcome of all.